Xeneta analysts see 2025 container shipping turmoil

Analysts Peter Sand and Emily Stausbøll of Norway-based freight rate benchmarking platform Xeneta say several looming circumstances in the first five weeks of 2025 are poised to keep container shippers and freight forwarders on their toes early next year.

In a recent webinar hosted by Xeneta, the two analysts identified six significant events or anniversaries set to take place in January and early February 2025.

On Jan. 1, attacks in the Red Sea and Suez Canal region by Yemeni Houthi rebels will have reached 400 days of disruption, according to Xeneta, “with a large-scale return of container ships to the region looking unlikely.”

Just two weeks later, the International Longshoremen Association (ILA) port strike suspension action put in place earlier this autumn will come to an end. Five days after that, President-elect Donald Trump will be back in office, likely to be followed soon after by tariffs affecting transoceanic shipping demand.

Before January ends, the conflict caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have reached 35 months, with its three-year mark reached the following month.  

The Chinese Lunar New Year starts Jan. 29. That holiday, celebrated for up to two weeks at many offices and factories in China, introduces seasonal supply chain interruptions most years.

Finally, Feb. 1, the new Gemini Cooperation and Premier container shipping alliances come into effect, replacing their predecessors THE alliance and 2M.

Regarding what the string of events could mean for recyclers, traders and other container shipping customers in the U.S., Sand said during the Xeneta webinar that while spot rates from China to the U.S. East Coast had flattened, long-term rates more recently have reached $4,250 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU), with more price volatility likely.

“Don’t make any mistakes that the storm has passed,” Sand said. “There is something boiling beyond the U.S. presidential election. Come January, there is a potential strike around the corner, and only a week later we will have Trump’s inauguration, followed by the Lunar New Year a week after that. It’s fair to say that there’s a number of dominoes lined up, which may fall against your liking.”

The Xeneta analysts said U.S. importers that have goods or materials that can be stored and have access to warehousing likely have been bolstering their inventories, which could then be followed by a pause. For recyclers with outbound materials, that could affect how and whether they can find empty containers.

“If you’re considering shipping more than your contracted allowance, be aware of the long-short market spread," Sand said. "The bigger the spread, the likelier it is for carriers and shippers to act in a way that is different to what you would otherwise expect.”