September global steel output drops from last year

Crude steel production in September in the 71 countries reporting to the Brussels-based World Steel Association (Worldsteel) dropped by 4.7 percent compared with output in September 2023.

While 143.6 million metric tons (MMT) of steel were made globally this September, that is down from 149.3 MMT last September and 151.7 MMT in September 2022.

As the nation that produces around half of the world’s steel, China’s output has been a key to the declining global totals. China's September output totals in the past three years are 87.0 MMT in 2022, 82.1 MMT in 2023 and 77.1 MMT in September.

The output drop in China is considered by most analysts to be tied to the nation’s overbuilt apartment tower market. The 77.1 MMT made last month is down by more than 11 percent from the 87 MMT made two years earlier.

Of the 10 largest steel-producing nations reporting to Worldsteel, China and five others have experienced reduced output in the first nine months of 2024 compared with the same period one year earlier.

Year to date, in addition to China with a 3.6 percent decline, the following nations produced less steel in the first three quarters of 2024 compared with January-September 2023: Russia (-5.5 percent), South Korea (-4.6 percent), Japan (-3.2 percent), Iran (-3.1 percent) and the United States (-1.6 percent).

September saw two nations experience year-on-year double-digit declines in output. Russia’s steel production was down by an estimated 10.3 percent this September compared with last, according to Worldsteel, while Iran’s output dropped by an estimated 41.2 percent.

The figures for September reveal a 0.2 percent output drop in India compared with September 2023, a rarity in a nation whose steel output has been on an uptick more often than not.

Strong production numbers in India and Turkey—where output is up by 13.8 percent so far in 2024 compared with last year—would normally underpin a strong overseas scrap market for exporters based in the U.S.

However, steel industry analysts and companies involved in steel and metals recycling say that even with reduced output, China continues to ship billet to other nations, including those with rolling mills that might normally be supplied by regional melt shops consuming imported scrap.