Tariffs likely rising on inbound steel, aluminum and copper

Perceived national security and reshoring factors could contribute to new or increased tariffs for steel, aluminum and copper entering the United States.

An early January report from the Washington Post says strategists providing input to President-elect Donald Trump are urging him to pull back from the “universal” tariffs he campaigned on and instead target specific industry sectors.

The Post's White House economics reporter Jeff Stein says it is not immediately clear precisely which products and industries will face tariffs. However, he indicates preliminary discussions largely have focused on several key sectors the Trump team wants to bring back to the United States.

The first sector for reshoring mentioned in the report is placed in the “defense industrial supply chain” category, with tariffs on steel, iron, aluminum and copper specifically mentioned.

Also pertinent to the recycling industry, the report refers to imported batteries, rare earth minerals and solar panels as likely tariff candidates.

For several decades, the U.S. has been a net exporter of ferrous and nonferrous scrap metals, with its melting capacity either too small or of the wrong type to absorb the recyclable steel, aluminum, copper and brass generated by its world-leading economy.

In the first 10 months of 2024, the U.S. shipped 581,000 metric tons of aluminum scrap and, in the first eight months of last year, more than 620,000 metric tons of copper-bearing scrap overseas, according to statistics gathered by the U.S. Census Bureau. Also last year, the U.S. sent 2.2 million metric tons of steel scrap to Turkey alone, according to information gathered by Navigate Commodities.

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Whether tariffs can boost the production of recycled-content metal and retain more scrap onshore in the U.S. remains to be seen. However, more scrap could be consumed domestically if the significant capital investments made in new recycled-content steel and aluminum and copper production represent added tonnage rather than replacement capacity.