AISI statistics portray domestic steel hiccups

The price of ferrous scrap in the United States has been in a rut, and several statistics compiled by the Washington-based American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) could provide clues as to why.

The AISI, which collects data from its members and publishes statistics gathered by the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Commerce Department, has made three announcements in early April that are less than positive for steelmakers and scrap suppliers in the U.S.

In February, AISI reported steel mills in the U.S. shipped out less than 7.1 million tons of product, a decrease of 2.8 percent from the more than 7.3 million tons shipped one year earlier and down 3.9 percent from the prior month’s shipments.

Domestic mill output, which is tracked weekly by AISI, also is down year to date through March 30. According to AISI, the 21.75 million tons produced in the first three months of this year represent a 2.6 percent decline from the more than 22.3 million tons made in the same time frame in 2023.

Not all the output news is bad, however. In the week ending March 30, steel production of more than 1.7 million tons rose by 1.1 percent compared with the prior week. As well, the most recent available output figure is 0.2 percent higher than that from the comparable week in 2023.

Thus far in 2024, domestic steel mills are operating at an average capability utilization (capacity) rate of 76.2 percent. That compares with a 77.7 percent rate in the first quarter of 2023.

A statistic that might raise concern in the domestic steel and metal recycling sectors involves finished and semifinished steel imports into the U.S. this March.

AISI says imports into the U.S. rose by more than 11 percent this March compared with the prior month.

Year to date in the first quarter, finished steel imports were 2.6 percent higher compared with the first quarter of 2023, and in March they accounted for 23 percent of overall market share.

Canada, Brazil and Mexico are the highest volume shippers of finished and semifinished steel into the U.S. so far this year, with South Korea joining those three as a major supplier in March.

A range of steel grades or shapes have been exported in larger volumes, according to Commerce Department data, including cold rolled sheets (up 36 percent), cut length plates (up 32 percent) and structural pipe and tubing (up 31 percent), according to AISI.

“Foreign government subsidies and other market-distorting policies have resulted in massive global steel overcapacity and repeated surges of steel imports in the U.S. market," AISI says.

In addition to mentioning “substantial overproduction" of steel in China and other countries where there is significant government intervention in the steel sector, the group advocates for ensuring “full and effective enforcement of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to incentivize the use of American steel in manufacturing and to strengthen manufacturing supply chains.”