AISI statistic confirms tepid state of American steel sector

Generators and processors of steel for recycling are unlikely to be encouraged by a steel shipment figure recently announced by the Washington-based American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

The trade association, which gathers production figures from member companies in the United States, says steel shipments from American mills in the first four months of 2024 were down by 3.2 percent compared with the same period last year.

Offering perhaps slightly better news, this April, mill shipments of about 7.35 million tons represented a drop of just 1.9 percent compared with April 2023.

AISI says its comparison of shipments year to date in 2024 with the first four months of 2023 shows the following changes: cold-rolled sheet shipments are up 4 percent; corrosion-resistant steel shipments are down 2 percent; and hot-rolled steel shipments also are down 2 percent.

The figures help portray why the value of ferrous scrap in the U.S. has been in a prolonged trough, not exhibiting any upward movement since December of last year.

Despite tariffs deployed by the previous and current presidential administrations as a form of protection for the domestic steel industry, AISI says the volume of imported steel has been on the rise this year.

Citing U.S. Census Bureau figures, AISI says total steel imports rose by 2.2 percent in the first four months of 2024 compared with the same time frame last year. In the finished steel subsector, imports are up by 4.5 percent year on year.

In 2024, imports registered as coming from Canada, Brazil, Mexico and South Korea have combined to provide nearly 6.5 million tons of steel to the American market. That figure represents nearly 63 percent of the total volume of more than 10.3 million tons imported this year.

Of those nations, Brazil has increased its shipments to the U.S. by 23.5 percent so far this year while shipments from Canada are down 1.9 percent and from Mexico are down nearly 12 percent compared with their first trimester of 2023.

While China’s perceived steel industry overcapacity frequently is a cause of concern to industry analysts, just 137,000 tons of steel registered as shipped from China has arrived in U.S. ports this year, representing 1.3 percent of the total. That figure also is down by 40 percent compared with what arrived in the first four months of 2023.

Despite China currently ranking just 10^th in the table of imported steel shippers, the Biden Administration has singled it out with an increased tariff rate, based largely on wider trade and geopolitical considerations.

In May, the Biden administration and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) said they intended to increase the tariff placed on inbound Chinese steel products to 25 percent.

In response, AISI President Kevin Dempsey said, “China continues to engage in widespread unfair trade practices that harm American steel producers and key steel-consuming industries such as the auto industry. We appreciate the Biden administration’s commitment to addressing the challenges from China’s market-distorting, unfair trade practices on these products.”

While China’s recorded steel exports to the U.S. are dropping, by percentage Egypt (up 429 percent) and Vietnam (up 110 percent) have seen the largest increases in steel shipped to the U.S. so far this year compared with 2023. Vietnam ranks seventh by volume among nations so far this year, while Egypt is in 11th place.