China’s steel mills show sign of slowing

Output of the world’s steel mills this April, as measured by the Brussels-based World Steel Association (Worldsteel), declined by 5 percent measured against global April 2023 mill output.

China, by far the world’s leading steelmaker with more than 50 percent of all output, largely was responsible for the decline. That nation’s figures, which come from the Beijing-based China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), show it produced 7.2 percent less steel this April compared with April 2023. Year to date, China has produced 3 percent less steel than it did in the first four months of 2023.

Globally, Worldsteel says the 71 countries that now report to it accounted for approximately 98 percent of total world crude steel production in 2023.

While China’s steel output has been declining this year, production in two leading United States ferrous scrap export destinations—Turkey and India—has been rising.

This April, Indian mills churned out 12.5 percent more steel than they did in April 2023. Year to date, India has produced 8.5 percent more steel compared with 2023.

Turkey, for many years the leading destination for outbound ferrous scrap from the U.S., produced 4.5 percent more steel this April compared with April of last year. That represented a slowdown compared with the first quarter of this year as Turkey has produced an impressive 22.3 percent more steel year to date than it did in the first four months of 2023.

The active Turkish and Indian steel markets in 2024, unfortunately, have not yet resulted in rising ferrous scrap prices for U.S. metals recyclers and traders.

The price range for major grades in the U.S. have been stuck in the $325 to $400 per ton range throughout this calendar year despite what looks like potential rising demand from large overseas buyers.

While it can be hard to track, observers have questioned to what extent rolling mills in Turkey and India, instead of firing up their melt shops with U.S.-origin scrap, have been rolling ingots made in Russia and China, where steelmakers have looked for friendly markets in a situation where potential buyers in the U.S. and Europe have been avoiding Russian-origin material in particular.

This April, steel output in the U.S. fell by 2.2 percent. According to Worldsteel, output last month also fell in Russia (-2.5 percent) and Japan (-1.2 percent). However, steel production rose in Germany this April compared with one year ago (+6.1 percent) and in Brazil (+ 4 percent), which is a sporadic buyer of U.S. scrap.

Globally, crude steel production for the 71 countries reporting to Worldsteel checked in at 155.7 million metric tons this April 2024, down from the 161.4 million metric tons originally reported as having been made in April 2023.