China ups steel output while other nations cut back

The world’s steel mills produced 151.2 million metric tons (Mmt) of crude steel this October, marking a 0.4 percent increase compared with October of last year.

Compared with the prior month, global output rose by 7.6 Mmt, or 5.3 percent. China was responsible for 4.8 Mmt of that September-to-October boost, or 63 percent of the overall rise in production.

The figures, compiled by the Brussels-based World Steel Association (Worldsteel) and representing output in 71 countries nations, show Chinese mills ramped up their production in October while mills in several other nations slowed down from their output levels earlier in the year.

The 81.9 Mmt of steel made in China last month represents a 3.5 percent increase compared with the 79.1 Mmt it produced one year ago. Notably, it also marked a 6.2 percent increase from the prior month, when Chinese mills made just 77.1 Mmt of steel.

The financial press and industry observers have speculated that Chinese steelmakers may have ramped up output in anticipation of a government stimulus plan that would lead to a spike in steel demand.

Another theory involves Chinese steelmakers and manufacturers increased exports in anticipation of a Trump presidency that will see trade barriers increase in the U.S., followed by similar protection measures enacted in Europe and other parts of the world.

Whatever the causes of the boost in output, it made China one of five of the world’s 10 largest steel producing nations that experienced a production increase this October compared with one year earlier.

Nations with reduced year-on-year output include: South Korea (-18.3 percent); Russia (-15.2 percent); Japan (-7.8 percent); the United States (-2.0 percent) and Iran (-1.9 percent).

Joining China in the rising output club were: Brazil (+16.2 percent); Germany (+14.7 percent); India (+1.7 percent); and Turkey (+0.7 percent).

While output in India and Turkey—two leading U.S. and European ferrous scrap export destinations—rose slightly, the pace of growth is down from earlier this year.

India’s 1.7 percent October 2024 output increase compared with October 2023 is below its 5.6 percent growth rate for the first 10 months of the year overall, according to Worldsteel. 

In Turkey, that nation’s 0.7 percent rise in October year-on-year output is even further off pace in contrast with its 12.7 percent output boost for the first 10 months of 2024 compared with January through October 2023.