Disappointing December predicted for overseas ferrous market

Atilla Widnell of Singapore-based Navigate Commodities predicted in late November that Turkish mills were unlikely to raise their bids, and recent reports from global metals price tracking service Davis Index indicate that prediction was accurate and also that buyers from India, Bangladesh or Pakistan seem unlikely to raise their offers this month.

On LinkedIn, Widnell described Turkish interest in bulk cargoes from nearby Southern and Eastern Europe as “dead” one week ago and predicted sellers in the United Kingdom would respond by dropping their export prices. Although Widnell did not specifically mention outbound United States scrap, it is unlikely U.S. shippers can request price hikes while sellers in the U.K. and continental Europe are being forced to lower prices.

Late last week, Davis Index said a U.S.-origin bulk HMS shipment to Turkey was sold for $3 per ton less than the pricing service’s previous such transaction.

It also has reported mills in Bangladesh are bidding $2 to $3 per ton less for imported, containerized shredded scrap, though bulk heavy melting steel (HMS) prices could hold steady. Indian buyers are not bidding up prices either, according to Davis Index, and in Pakistan imported shredded scrap has hit a nearly five-year low in value.

According to Widnell, shippers on the U.S. West Coast are not being helped by Japan’s ability to be a significant exporter of ferrous scrap in 2024. Citing Japan Customs data, Navigate Commodities says more than 2 million metric tons of Japanese ferrous scrap have been shipped to Vietnam this year, nearly 1.3 million metric tons have gone to South Korea and Taiwan has absorbed another 600,000 metric tons.

If shippers in the U.S. are to hear better offers in early December, they might have to come from domestic mill buyers. Unfortunately for steel recyclers, December historically does not offer the prospect of fierce bidding, especially from mills located in states where end-of-year inventory taxes prompt them to keep their scrap volumes to a minimum.