Ferrous supply, demand woes signaled worldwide

Disruptive winter weather has been cited as a leading cause of diminished recycled steel supplies (and higher prices) in the United States market. Other parts of the world with entirely different weather systems are singing the same refrain of tight supply, often citing industrial production shortcomings.

A collection of market reports in a February 2025 “World Mirror on Ferrous Metals” contains writeups from several Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) members expressing concerns about reduced scrap flows.

“Germany’s recycled steel market encountered a difficult environment in the fourth quarter of 2024,” writes Denis Reuter of Germany-based TSR Recycling. “At the end of the year, recycled steel stocks along the value chain reached historically low levels as many consumers stocked up for the coming year. Overall, the market continued to be characterized by uncertainty and limited availability,” adds the recycled steel executive.

Tom Bird of United Kingdom-based Enicor says in that country, “Material continues to be in tight supply across the U.K. market, with most operators reporting incoming supplies at low levels.”

A decline in the global demand for recycled steel is on the minds of other contributors to the Brussels-based BIR February publication.

“Falling consumption and especially the decline in activity in the important German automotive sector have impacted demand for recycled steel,” writes Mogens Bach Christensen of Denmark-based H. J. Hansen Genvindingsindustri.

Ted Taya of Japan-based Shinsei Scrap Co. Ltd. writes, “In the final quarter of 2024, the domestic recycled steel market remained rather weak, and a wait-and-see attitude prevailed.”

The recycler, citing Japanese Ministry of Finance statistics, also says the nation’s ferrous scrap exports declined by 5.6 percent in 2024 compared with the prior year, with South Korea in particular having become a more reluctant buyer.

Michael Gaylard, who works from the U.S. for Australia-based Sims Ltd., points to Taiwan as another country with a reduced appetite for scrap imports.

“Taiwan recorded a 12 percent decline in recycled steel imports in 2024, driven by high power costs, power availability issues and cheap imported billet,” he writes. “As a result, steelmakers prioritized rolling operations, focusing on cost-effective billets along with cheaper pig iron and domestic recycled steel to compensate for weaker mill order books.”

Several “World Mirror” contributors also mention tariffs as a present and looming source of turbulence in the global steelmaking and recycled steel markets.

“While a trade war has been averted at least for now, it is still not off the table,” writes George Adams of U.S.-based SA Recycling. “Any trade war would impact consumer demand, which is the necessary component to keep the market on an upward trajectory,” he adds.

“The U.S. government’s implementation of tariffs on steel imports and the restrictions on trans-frontier movements of recycled ferrous metals have significant worldwide implications,” writes Shane Mellor of U.K.-based Mellor Metals Ltd., who also serves as president of the BIR Ferrous Division.

Adds Mellor, “In the past, when U.S. tariffs contributed to increased global steel prices, this affected countries dependent on steel exports and created an economic strain on nations such as Brazil and Turkey, who are significant steel producers.”

Turkey remains atop the perch as the worldwide leader in ferrous scrap imports, according to a summary of the first nine months of global steelmaking activity created by BIR Ferrous Division Statistics Advisor Rolf Willeke.

Citing the U.K.-based International Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB) as his source, Willeke says Turkey imported more than 15 million metric tons (mmt) of recycled steel in the first nine months of 2024, up by 6.4 percent compared with the same time frame in 2023.

Finishing in a distant second and third behind Turkey in total ferrous scrap imports from January through September of 2024 were India with 6.36 mmt in imported scrap and Vietnam with 4.05 mmt.

While Turkey’s imported scrap volume grew in the first nine months of 2024, both India (-17 percent) and Vietnam (-3.6 percent) are poised to be smaller scale buyers last year compared with the prior year.