China’s slowdown lowers global August steel total

Global crude steel production this August fell by 6.5 percent compared with output in August 2023, with conditions in the People’s Republic of China largely responsible for the dramatic decline.

The Brussels-based World Steel Association (Worldsteel) says in the 71 countries reporting figures to it, 144.8 million metric tons (MMT) of steel was produced this August 2024.

Globally, that figure represents a 6.5 percent decrease compared with worldwide output in August 2023. In China, this August’s output of 77.9 MMT of steel production was down by 10.4 percent compared with the 86.4 MMT of mill output there last August.

Year to date through August, the 691.4 MMT of steel made in China is down by 3.3 percent compared with last year.  This May and June, mills in China actually made more steel than they had one year earlier, until the summer months brought a sharp downturn in July and August output.

This August, China was joined by four of the other 10 largest steel producing nations in experiencing a year-on-year decline in output: South Korea (-5.5 percent); Russia (-4.9 percent); Japan (-2.9 percent); and the United States (-1.7 percent).  

Five other large output nations, however, have posted year-to-date gains in production: Turkey (+14.8 percent); India (+6.5 percent); Germany (+4.0 percent); Brazil (+3.8 percent); and Iran (+1.9 percent). Depending on global market conditions, Turkey and India often represent steady export markets for ferrous scrap shipped from the U.S., while Brazil has a reputation for intermittently entering the market.

The majority of recycled steel processed in the U.S. stays in its home market, where mills have not managed to equal their production figures from last year.

While Worldsteel has U.S. output down year on year by 1.7 percent through August, the most recent figures from the Washington-based American Iron and Steel Institute note a 1.6 percent year-on-year decline through Sept. 21, 2024.

In the week ending Sept. 21, 2024, domestic steel production of slightly more than 1.7 million tons was achieved while mills operated at a capability utilization (capacity) rate of 76.9 percent.

That compares with production of about 1.69 million tons in the comparable week last year, when the mill capacity rate was 74.4 percent.

Unfortunately, the most recent week’s production represents a 2.4 percent decline from the previous week (ending Sept. 14, 2024), when nearly 1.75 million tons of steel was made and the capacity rate was 78.8 percent.

The overall steel production situation so far this year has resulted in ferrous scrap prices in the U.S. that have rarely risen and often sloped downward month to month. Neither domestic buyers, as measured by mill transaction figures collated by MSA Inc.’s Raw Material Data Aggregation Service (RMDAS), nor overseas buyers have been bidding up prices.