Global steel output tapers downward

National steelmaking statistics gathered by the Brussels-based World Steel Association (Worldsteel) show output in several nations declined this February compared with one year earlier. The net result globally was a 3.4 percent drop in production in the 69 nations that report figures to Worldsteel.

Among the nations with year-on-year output declines was the world’s largest steelmaking nation, China. In that country, which makes more than half the world's steel, production declined 3.3 percent this February compared with February 2024.

Experiencing even higher year-on-year drops this February were: Iran (-21.8 percent); Germany (-13.5 percent); Japan (-8.5 percent); the United States (-7.0 percent); Turkey (-5.6 percent); and Russia (-3.4 percent). Additionally, output in Brazil dropped 1.6 percent year on year.

Among the world’s 10 largest steel producing nations this February, only two experienced year-on-year increases in output: India (+6.3 percent) and South Korea (+0.7 percent), according to Worldsteel.

The group of nearly 70 nations combined to make 144.7 million metric tons (mmt) this February, leading to the 3.4 percent decline from the 148.8 mmt produced last February.

Month on month, the world’s steel furnaces also experienced a slowdown, reducing output by 4.4 percent this February compared with the prior month.

In China each year, the Lunar New Year holiday can have a considerable impact on steel and industrial output. This year, the holiday started in late January and carried over into early February.

Worldsteel’s statistics show that in addition to Iran’s and Turkey’s year-on-year declines, what it classified as its Middle East region has witnessed a 13.5 percent decline in output year to date.

A trade group that represents some Turkish rebar exporters has pointed to a growing climate of trade barriers as one circumstance making steelmakers in the region hesitant to ramp up production.

While the fate of one construction project seldom would affect regional steel output, the Neom project in Saudi Arabia is no ordinary one.

Some steel industry observers are pointing to sinking steel output levels in Turkey, Iran and the Middle East as coinciding with late 2024 news that the massive building project—which includes the planned 165-mile-long “The Line” development—is being at least partially reconsidered.

A November 2024 article by the Singapore-based Straits Times describes Neom as an “urban and industrial development nearly the size of Belgium” that has been designed “to house nearly 9 million people.”

The ambitious project has been championed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, but by late last year the royal family member reportedly began scaling back the level of support Neom was receiving from the nation’s sovereign wealth fund.

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Rising costs tied to the project began coming to light at the same time the price of oil (Saudi Arabia’s leading export) began to stagnate. Last November, the $500 billion project’s chief executive departed from the Neom leadership team, according to media reports.

Last October, just before Neom’s chief executive departed, another Neom executive told attendees of an industry conference that the project in Saudi Arabia was at that time using one-fifth of all the steel being produced in the world.

The United Arab Emirates-based Arabian Gulf Business Insight news service quotes Manar Al Moneef, Neom’s chief investment officer, as citing that figure during a presentation at a Global Logistics Forum event held in in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.