Stainless output rising in China, declining elsewhere

Globally, stainless steel mill melt shop production in the first nine months of 2023 rose by 2.5 percent—to 42.6 million metric tons—compared with the first nine months of 2022, according to the Brussels-based World Stainless Association (Worldstainless).

Behind that figure lies a discrepancy between output in China and the rest of the world, however. According to Worldstainless, while output at Chinese melt shops was rising by 13.4 percent in the first nine months of 2023, production in other parts of the world was declining by from 8 to 13 percent.

The association indicates output in Europe in the first nine months of 2023 was down by 8 percent compared with the first three quarters of 2022. In other parts of the world, these declines were recorded:

• United States, 12.9 percent;
• Asia (not including China or South Korea), 12.4 percent; and
• an “others” category that includes Brazil, Russia and South Africa,13.2 percent.

The association’s figures also show that melt shop production in places such as Europe and the U.S. declined quarter to quarter throughout 2023, excluding the not yet calculated figures for the final quarter.

In the U.S., producers made 478,000 metric tons of stainless in the first quarter of last year, followed by 465,000 metric tons in the second quarter and just 442,000 metric tons in the third.

A similar pattern occurred in Europe, where 1.64 million metric tons of stainless were produced in the first quarter of 2023, followed by less than 1.5 million metric tons in the second quarter and just 1.27 million metric tons in the third quarter of last year.

In China, meanwhile, stainless output climbed from about 8 million metric tons in the first quarter of last year to nearly 9 million metric tons in the second quarter and to more than 9.5 million metric tons in last year’s third quarter.

The output growth in China is of limited consequence to the global stainless steel scrap market since mills in that nation rely much more heavily on mined nickel pig iron material. The restrained output in Europe and the U.S., on the other hand, has been serving to put a ceiling on scrap demand and pricing in those markets.