Analysis: Chemical recycling’s ‘inflection point’ nearing

An analysis of nearly 170 chemical (also known as advanced) recycling installations globally says in part that 2024 and 2025 mark “a key inflection point” as to how and whether pyrolysis systems in particular will affect the plastic landfill diversion and recycling rate.

Marcian Lee of Boston-based Lux Research led the analysis of pyrolysis, solvolysis and dissolution (solvent-based) and thermochemical depolymerization plastic processing installations worldwide.

In a blog post by Lee and his colleague Kristin Marshall, the duo refers to “advanced plastic recycling” as “one of the most asked-about topics at Lux.”

They continue, “This is not surprising as the plastics industry inches closer to deadlines for recycled content mandates and sustainability pledges. Advanced recycling allows for the recycling of previously unrecyclable waste streams and could potentially output virgin-like quality recyclates.”

However, the researchers also write, “Despite a growing demand for recycled plastics and better plastic recycling technologies, developers have largely struggled to commercialize.”

Lee’s research tracks 169 “scale-up announcements (including pilot or demonstration plants)” in the Americas, Europe/Middle East/Africa (EMEA), and the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region and finds more than 6 million metric tons per year of announced advanced recycling capacity, with 2 million metric tons of this capacity not having a clear timeline or planned for beyond 2026.

The aggregate set of announcements constitutes a three-fold increase in capacity over the next three years, Lux Research says.

Lee identifies this year and next as being “a key inflection point for pyrolysis, where we may see 1 million metric tons of annual completed global pyrolysis capacity – a sign of the tech’s commercial maturity.”

Much of that growth momentum, Lee says, is in the EU and the APAC region.

He summarizes his research by saying the projected growth in advanced recycling capacity “bodes well for technology developers in general, and the growing venture capital funding trends share this optimistic outlook.”

Lee and Marshall conclude in their blog post, “While there are still some mixed signals from regional policies on advanced recycling technologies, especially pyrolysis, overall regulatory trends are not entirely adverse; advanced recycling technology adopters will likely still be able to operate viably albeit with some limitations (fuels exempted mass balance for recycled content attribution, for example).”