Rebar association points to trade turmoil

The International Rebar Producers and Exporters Association (IREPAS), Lisbon, has released a short-term outlook report describing the market for long steel products globally as “overwhelmed by a spiral of duties and trade measures,” calling it “protectionism such as has never been experienced before.”

The United States is mentioned foremost by IREPAS, which has members that hail from countries around the world, including steel producers in Turkey, Spain and the Middle East and traders from the United Kingdom and Belgium.

“Because of the uncertainties created by the U.S. administration on top of the already existing problems, the markets are now somewhat lost,” IREPAS writes in its mid-March report. “As a result, pressure is very high. Unpredictable decisions by the U.S. government can change the plans of market players overnight. It seems the U.S. finally discovered the best method of protection by creating uncertainties and making it hard to export to the U.S.A.”

While IREPAS fears a more closed market in the U.S., its report’s author would like to see mills in the People’s Republic of China do a little less global trading.

“The news released after the national congress in China is promising, however, we still need to see if the production reductions will become a reality,” the organization writes.

“It would have been great if the Chinese government reduced production as they did in 2015 and 2016, but since the economic situation in China is getting more and more difficult, exports are becoming increasingly important for them,” IREPAS continues.

It concludes its comments on China by adding, “They may simply not be in a position to enforce the production reductions on local governments and individual steel mills. Domestic prices in China are not encouraging and are still making exports more attractive.”

Regarding conditions in the European Union, IREPAS says the continent’s leaders could need to react more quickly within the shifting steel trading landscape.

“In the proposal for the revision of the EU safeguard measures, the European Commission has not proposed any defense measures against surging imports, thereby leaving the EU wide open for more imports and thus more trade measures from the U.S.,” IREPAS writes.

Beyond trade issues, the outlook also expresses concern about demand for rebar in the U.S. “The general steel business in the U.S. has worsened,” IREPAS claims.

The group says a wave of early 2025 steel imports in the U.S. could scale back demand in the following months. “The current demand in the market is actually opportunistic buying in anticipation of higher duties in the future,” according to the group. “There was already a surplus of material imported last month for the same reason.”

While steelmakers around the world often jointly point to China as a source of low-cost, subsidized steel, IREPAS says steelmakers there could receive an unintended assist from U.S. President Donald J. Trump.

“A flat 25 percent import tariff in the U.S. will benefit low-cost countries,” IREPAS says. “In long products, the price increases in the U.S. are lagging behind flat product price rises.”

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While U.S. scrap processors have enjoyed rising recycled steel prices in early 2025, electric arc furnace (EAF) producers in nations like Turkey do not welcome the bolstered values.

“The increases in scrap prices force EAF-based mills to replace their scrap purchases with the procurement of semis,” IREPAS writes, referring to semi-finished steel billets. “EAF-based mills are already priced out, and the smart choice is semi-finished imports from Asia as evidenced by recent Turkish import statistics."

Concludes IREPAS, “Overall, the current environment is not bright, to say the least. The level of competition in the global market is very strong, being almost at maximum levels. The current situation in the market can be described as unstable with high volatility, with a similar outlook.”