MRAI 2024: Room to grow for years ahead

Optimism expressed at the 2024 Material Recycling Association of India (MRAI) International Material Recycling Conference in Kolkata, India, in late January partially was tied to a perceived bright future for the circular economy.

Other presenters focused on current and expected increases in India’s gross domestic product (GDP) or on compatible growth in the amount of metals consumed per person annually.

That second measure was referred to by Hitesh Agarwal, the head of raw materials at India-based Jindal Stainless. According to Agarwal, Indians currently consume between 3.0 and 3.5 kilograms per person, which equates to from 6.6 to 7.7 pounds.

The stainless steel executive says that figure is poised to grow to 5 kg (11 pounds) by 2030. The forecast referred to by Agarwal has the figure rising to 11 kg (24.2 pounds) per person by 2047.

As might be expected, that means India’s stainless steel production could rise from its current level of about 4.6 million metric tons this year to 20 million or more metric tons by 2047, Agarwal added.

Other presenters and panelists offered similar metal production growth scenarios at the event. Regarding the use of zinc in India, Navneet Chadha of India-based VK Metcast Pvt. Ltd. said the nation was currently consuming about 0.5 kg (1.1 pounds) per capita of the metal—a fraction of the global average of 2.5 kg (5.5 pounds).

Dhawal Shah of Mumbai-based Metco Marketing, who also serves as MRAI’s senior vice president, offered similarly encouraging figures for aluminum and copper.

According to Shah, while India’s current per capita aluminum consumption is 2.5 kg (5.5 pounds), it has a great deal of room to grow to meet the world average of 11.5 kg (25.3 pounds). In the copper sector, Indians are now consuming about 0.6 kg (1.3 pounds) per year, well below the global average of 3.2 kg (7 pounds).

“The way forward is very, very exciting” for the metals sector in India, said Shah. The challenges spelled out by Shah and other panelists involved regulatory hurdles and scrap availability in the future.

Sean Davidson, founder of metals information service provider Davis Index, predicted consumption of and demand for scrap metal grades in most nations “is just going to keep increasing. The next 10, 20, 30, 40 years should just be fantastic for this industry.”

While many MRAI delegates were likely happy to hear that prediction, Shah noted that in India’s case it will rely on open and good trading relationships to keep its recycled-content metals output growing.

He called India’s secondary metals sector “import centric,” and predicted India was at least 15 years away from self-sufficiency to generate consumption levels for most types of metal scrap.

The 2024 MRAI International Material Recycling Conference was Jan. 23-25 at the Biswa Bangla Mela Prangan convention center in Kolkata, India.