Analyst: Scrap imbalance lost amid copper’s critical status

In the March 21 edition of "The Copper Journal," metals analyst John Gross says an aspect of President Donald Trump’s recent attention to domestic critical minerals sourcing that bears consideration is the nation’s exporting of copper-bearing scrap.

In a March 20 executive order, the White House states, “It is imperative for our national security that the United States take immediate action to facilitate domestic mineral production to the maximum possible extent.”

Copper is one of just four elements specifically mentioned in the order, along with gold, potash and uranium. The other metals involved are those the Department of Interior considers critical minerals. 

In terms of boosting output, the order defines mineral production as “the mining, processing, refining and smelting of minerals, and the production of processed critical minerals and other derivative products.”

In his report the following day, Gross ties the new executive order to the notion that the U.S. is still exporting enormous quantities of copper scrap that would ideally be processed and consumed domestically.

The publisher of "The Copper Journal" points to a report from the Lisbon-based International Copper Study Group (ICSG) that identifies the nations with the largest copper scrap imports and export volumes in 2024.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the largest global exporter by far is the U.S., which shipped 959,000 metric tons of copper-bearing scrap last year, according to the ICSG.

Although China has restricted certain types of scrap imports, it nonetheless has remained the overwhelming global leader as a red metal scrap importer, having brought in 2.25 million metric tons of copper scrap last year.

“According to the U.S. Geological Survey, 41 percent of our copper scrap exports went to China," Gross says. "Also, while the U.S. exported nearly 1 million metric tons of [copper-bearing] scrap last year, we imported 908,000 metric tons of refined copper.”

At a recycling industry event in 2022, Gross expressed optimism that the imbalance could be poised for a shift.

“The U.S. copper industry has reached pivotal point, and recyclers are in the middle of it,” he said at that time, referencing new domestic capacity being installed. “These investments in copper are just the beginning.”

In addition to promoting domestic critical minerals production, the White House also has indicated it could use tariffs to hinder (or at least render more expensive) the inflow of imported copper, possibly as soon as next month.

Gross says that potential policy has been a factor in copper’s escalating price, especially on the U.S.-based Comex exchange.

“As of Friday [March 21], the Comex premium now stands at 44 cents, based on the month-to-date Comex average of $4.83 [per pound] as compared [with] $4.39 on the London Metal Exchange (LME),” Gross writes in his report.