Copper market navigation stress lingers

The world’s copper mining, smelting and refining sectors more than met increased global demand in 2024, according to statistics gathered by the Lisbon-based International Copper Study Group (ICSG).

In its statistical summary of last year, ICSG reports that copper mine production grew by 2.3 percent in 2024 compared with the previous year while refined copper production grew by 4.2 percent.

According to ICSG, recyclers and secondary producers played a part in the increase by raising the global output of recycled-content copper by 2.0 percent in 2024 compared with 2023.

At the end of last year, the global inventory of refined copper stood at about 1.54 million metric tons, representing a 29.5 percent increase from the roughly 1.19 million metric tons in inventory at the end of 2023.

A late February analysis by global consulting firm McKinsey & Co. finds that the mining industry is taking measures to close what the firm predicted would be a gap in the world’s copper supply by 2035. McKinsey says fully closing that predicted gap will cost $400 billion in capital expenditures.

“Growing demand from the energy transition and data centers has offered incentives to mining companies and metal refiners alike to bring supply online faster than previously expected,” McKinsey writes.

Within that wider landscape, McKinsey also identifies recycling as a source of opportunity.

“Savvy metals traders are also investing in metals recycling and secondary processing assets for high-demand commodities such as copper,” write Joscha Schabram and Roland Rechtsteiner of McKinsey’s Zurich office.

The co-authors also touch on emerging trade issues poised to affect investments and, potentially, economic activity.

“Changing regulation and export controls intended to foster local output of strategic metals will likely add complexity to the value chain and trade patterns,” they predict.

In an early March edition of The Copper Journal, trade turmoil and its impact on the economy is a topic for John Gross, the New York-based analyst who produces that publication.

“We all know that markets don’t like uncertainty, but we’ve reached a new level of unpredictability and inconstancy that is taking a toll on many markets and the economy,” Gross says after a week where North American tariffs were again put in place and then partially withdrawn by the White House.

The copper market in particular is awaiting the results of an investigation announced by the Donald Trump administration on a potential tariff on inbound copper.

“Rather than focusing on tariffs, why not look at why we lost significant ground on production and consumption of copper over many years, and come up with constructive recommendations to be more self-sufficient?” asks Gross.

The volatility that has characterized copper pricing the past two years seems unlikely to abate in the current climate, Gross concludes, with global investors among those signaling they are nervous about conditions in the United States.

“The dollar fell like a stone last week, helping to push all base and precious metals higher,” he says, also pointing out the continued spread between the value of copper on the U.S.-based Comex exchange and the London Metal Exchange (LME) .

“During February, spot copper on Comex averaged $4.55 [per pound], while the cash LME price was $4.23, resulting in a 32-cent Comex premium,” Gross says. “Thus far, the March month-to-date Comex average stands at $4.67, 35 cents over the cash LME average of $4.32. Many things seem to be in transition now, and there’s no telling where they’ll be tomorrow, or next week.”