GDP growth characterizing Argentina’s economy

Argentina’s finance ministry has reportedly calculated that the nation’s economy (as measured by gross domestic product, or GDP) grew from 2.5 to 3 percent in the second quarter of 2017 compared with the same quarter in 2016.

An online news item on the Business Recorder website cites a source within the nation’s finance ministry who says the government expects Argentina’s GDP to grow between 3.5 and 4 percent in the third quarter of 2017.

The same source reportedly said that consumption growth of 4.8 percent in May 2017 compared with May 2016, was one of the drivers of second quarter growth.

The second quarter and projected third quarter rebounds occur after more moderate GDP growth of just 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2017 and GDP decline of 2.3 percent in the final quarter of 2016.

The same source also indicated the economic rebound good bode well for the party of Argentina’s president Mauricio Macri, which faces midterm elections in October 2017 and needs to show a recovery is in effect after a difficult 2016.

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) report analyzing Latin America’s economy, released in April 2017, concluded that “In Argentina, the economic recovery is underway.”

The IMF’s analysts write, “Real GDP is expected to grow 2.25 percent in 2017, driven by a rebound of private consumption (as real wage growth turns positive amid falling inflation), stronger public capital spending, and a pickup of exports reflecting more favorable external demand and the exceptionally good harvest season.”

The IMF predicts Argentina’s economic growth will “remain at about 2.5 percent in 2018 and 2019, when fiscal rebalancing accelerates, whereas the rebound of private investment and exports continues at a gradual pace, against the backdrop of a strong exchange rate and slow progress of structural reforms.”