Aluminum demand lower so far in 2023

As part of its monthly Aluminum Situation report, the Arlington, Virginia-based Aluminum Association has released a preliminary estimate showing demand for the aluminum industry in the United States and Canada had declined 4.5 percent in the first half of this year compared with the first six months of last year.

“While aluminum demand has declined in the first half of 2023 following a buoyant 2022, it remains relatively strong compared to the past decade,” says Charles Johnson, president and CEO of the Aluminum Association. “Projects to build new, U.S.-based aluminum rolling mills for the first time in decades are underway as the long-term industry outlook is quite strong.”

Aluminum demand in the United States and Canada (shipments by domestic producers plus imports) totaled an estimated 13.3 billion pounds (6.65 million tons) in the first half of this year compared with 13.9 billion pounds (6.95 million tons) in the first half of last year.

A bright spot thus far, emanating from government and utility company attention to the electrical grid, is that demand for electrical wire and cable rose by 13.1 percent year over year in the first half.

However, according to the association, the total demand for semifabricated, or “mill” product, in the U.S. and Canada in the first half off this year was off 9.4 percent compared with the prior year.

Another bright spot for the North American sector: Aluminum exports from the U.S. and Canada to other countries increased 23.4 percent in this year’s first half year on year.

Imported aluminum and aluminum products into the U.S. and Canada, meanwhile, have fallen nearly 19 percent year on year.

The figures cited by the Aluminum Association do not include scrap. On that front, U.S. Census Bureau data summarized by the U.S. Geological Survey shows in the first five months of this year, about 286,000 metric tons of aluminum scrap have been imported into the U.S. while some 858,000 metric tons traveled outbound.

The volume of inbound aluminum scrap to the U.S. is up by 6.3 percent year to date while the exported scrap volume has risen by 1.5 percent.

The overall trend of lower demand for aluminum mirrors recent statistics for steel gathered by the Washington-based American Iron & Steel Institute, which says steel output in the U.S. has fallen about 1.8 percent so far this year, despite the fact imported steel volumes have dropped by more than 10 percent.

The Aluminum Association represents companies that make 70 percent of the aluminum and aluminum products shipped in North America.