AF&PA releases 2023 paper recycling rate, unveils new methodology

The conversation around paper recycling and recovery—specifically old corrugated containers (OCC)—has gained steam over the last several years as reports surface that suggest the paper recycling rate may not be as high as previously thought.

In a move the organization says utilizes the “best data available” and reflects constantly evolving global supply chain and paper recovery markets, the Washington-based American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA) has updated its methodology and released its 2023 paper recycling rate, reporting that 65-69 percent of paper available for recovery in the United States was recycled last year, including a 71-76 percent cardboard recycling rate.

“Today's updates reflect extensive and intentional work that sought to ensure our annual recycling rates directly address the questions we are being asked related to available fiber for recycling, are compatible with policies and regulations we face in the U.S. and that our audiences understand what our rates encompass,” Terry Webber, vice president of industry affairs at AF&PA, said during a news briefing Nov. 14 to announce the new rate.

“Utilizing extensive industry data, subject matter expertise and detailed U.S. trade data, this updated methodology now reflects the amount of paper recycled as a share of the amount of paper available for recovery rather than the share of the amount of paper used.”

Comparing methodologies

AF&PA’s previous recycling rate measured the amount of paper recycled as a share of the amount of paper used—in other words, the amount of paper and paper-based packaging recovered for recycling compared with how much new paper was produced in the U.S. plus net imports of new paper and paperboard.

To calculate its previous rate, the organization included U.S. production of paper and paperboard and imports and exports of finished paper and paperboard.

The new paper recycling rate now is calculated as the amount of paper recycled as a share of the amount of paper available for recovery, meaning how much readily recyclable paper and paperboard the industry recycled.

To calculate how much paper is available to be recycled, the AF&PA updates include net imports of product packaging, like boxes being used to ship produce or electronics, for example; adjustments for contamination and moisture, or unusable material; and an adjustment to not readily recycled grades.

The updated methodology still includes U.S. production of paper and paperboard as well as imports and exports of finished paper and paperboard.

“AF&PA’s recycling rate statistics incorporate all primary collection channels, including industrial, commercial, institutional and residential,” Webber said. “Our updated supply base rate will allow industry stakeholders to measure effectiveness and opportunity to improve the recycling system through a comprehensible calculation of both the share of paper being recycled and how much more paper is available to be recycled.

“This work has resulted in what we believe is the most thorough and fact-based recycling rate possible, underscoring AF&PA’s commitment to transparent and accurate data to guide industry and policy decisions.”

The AF&PA says that for instances where specific packaging data is unavailable, the calculation of the tonnage of packaging involves a series of estimates on the average volume of packages in a container, the translation of the volume to surface area, the translation of surface area to weight and the determination of the type of paper-based packaging.

“To dive a bit more into how our methodology has changed, AF&PA has improved our estimate of net imported product packaging using more detailed trade data and better estimates for packaging dimensions,” AF&PA Executive Director of Recovered Fiber Abigail Sztein said during the briefing. “We deducted an estimate of materials in recovered paper bales that are not used in manufacturing; in other words, paper not suitable for use in the specific grade, nonpaper materials and moisture.

“In the cardboard recycling rate calculation, we made adjustments for cardboard and other paper-based consumer packaging in different grades of commodity bales. We've provided our rates as a range to acknowledge aspects of the calculations that are based on estimates and, as a process step, we engaged an independent, highly credentialed third-party reviewer to examine our methodology and findings to ensure their rigor and validity.”

A closer look at cardboard

According to the AF&PA’s updated methodology, the U.S. OCC recycling rate in 2023 was between 71-76 percent—a vast difference from the previously reported 93.6 percent in 2022 and 91.4 percent in 2021.

The organization also had previously provided an “effective” OCC recycling rate, which in 2022 came in between 79-85 percent.

The latest AF&PA figures are more in line with other reports that have come out over the last several years.

In August 2022, Ryan Fox, corrugated market analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Myles Cohen, recycling industry expert and founder of Georgia-based Circular Ventures LLC, presented findings from their own alternative method of calculating the OCC recycling rate that estimates the number to be closer to 69 percent.

Then, in late 2023, a report from the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) suggested that of the estimated 110 million tons of paper and cardboard processed domestically in 2019, about 38 percent were recycled. The NREL report also showed that 60 percent of cardboard, or 29 million tons, was landfilled that year.

“I think we undertook this change to meet the specific needs that we see for our material, and one of those needs is the benchmarks and definitions that are being set in regulation and policy,” Webber said of AF&PA’s updated methodology. “I think as other folks are thinking about recycling rates for packaging in the marketplace, which is certainly a big focus of EPR, and certainly a big focus for us, EPA and the other policymakers and thought leaders on this topic, they are thinking about this in this way that when you're thinking about recycling rates, they are thinking about it as a percentage of total material available for recovery.

“I think one thing we learned is this is a very complex exercise and it was a lot of very laborious detail work that we put into putting together an estimate like this. And there are lots of folks who have a lot of work ahead of them to come up with something similar to this.”

For historical context, the AF&PA released updated figures for 2022. Using the new methodology, the total paper recycling rate in 2022 was 62-66 percent while the OCC recycling rate was 70-75 percent.