World Scrap Congress: Is EAF Production Facing Limits?

Steel production in China is currently using far more iron ore and virgin materials than scrap, while production in Turkey is almost a reverse image, with scrap being the majority feedstock.

At the 2010 World Scrap Congress, presenter Ozan Bekci of Turkish steelmaker Erdemir pointed out that while about 83 percent of Turkey’s steel production is currently using electric arc furnace (EAF) technology, China’s EAF market share is just 10 percent.

Regarding Turkey, Bekci questioned whether the nation’s reliance on the EAF method was sustainable in light of limited scrap supplies. “It is not sustainable to be 75 percent dependent on imported scrap,” he stated.

The sheer size of China’s steel industry, however, still makes it a significant importer of ferrous scrap. Statistics presented by Bekci indicate that China imported about 13.7 million tons of “seaborne” ferrous scrap in 2009, compared to Turkey’s 15.6 million tons imported.

However, with scrap demand and pricing rising in 2010, China has backed away to some extent, and the nation may end 2010 having imported only 7 million tons of ferrous scrap. “Chinese mills stepped up to the plate and increased purchases [in 2009],” said Bekci. “This was the saving grace, stabilizing the market.”

Bekci presented three different scenarios for Chinese seaborne ferrous scrap imports from 2011 to 2014. The three trend lines show China accepting shipments of anywhere from 8 million to 24 million tons of ferrous scrap in 2014, depending on variables ranging from its GDP growth to the price of ferrous scrap.

The World Scrap Congress, organized by Singapore-based Terrapinn, was Nov. 11-12 at the Grand Melia Hotel in Shanghai.