Uncertainty overhangs Asian markets

Recovered steel prices in Asia remained volatile in 2024 in light of China’s prolonged industrial downturn and the overall slump in global metal demand.

China is a significant recovered steel importer, therefore, declining imports of this material resulted in lower prices. Lower imports into the largest Asian economy also caused a glut of recovered steel throughout Asia, weighing down regional prices.

But spot demand for recovered steel is expected to improve in January amid raw material restocking activities in major East Asian markets ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, coupled with global supply tightness.

China

China’s steel demand has slowed in response to its economic downturn and delayed postpandemic rebound, which also affected demand for recovered steel and crude steel.

The weekly Davis Index for small bulk plate and structural (P&S 5-foot) originating in Japan declined by nearly 21 percent, or $70 per metric ton, to $340 per metric ton cfr (cost and freight) delivered to a Chinese port Dec. 4, 2024, from $410 per metric ton the prior year.

Meanwhile, virgin raw materials like iron ore stocks have fallen to their lowest level in seven years in China given robust demand despite high imports.

International prices for iron ore with 62 percent ferrous content scaled above $112 per metric ton cfr delivered to China from lows of $78 per metric ton in late August of last year. Coking coal prices stabilized at more than $250 per metric ton fob (freight on board) to Australia, keeping steelmaking input costs elevated.

However, the situation could improve as the Chinese government has released stimulus packages and infrastructure plans designed to boost economic recovery. Furthermore, it has removed its import tax on recovered steel and coke from all origins, while the export tax on recycled steel remains intact. Recent improvements in the country’s PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) readings show China’s economic recovery accelerated over the last couple months of 2024 after the government announced its stimulus package in September.

This past November, the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI reached 51.5, up 1.2 points from the previous month, marking the second straight month of manufacturing expansion in the country and its highest level since July. The Caixin reading also was supported by China’s official manufacturing PMI from the National Bureau of Statistics, which came in at 50.3 in November 2024, an increase from 50.1 in October.

The moderate boost in manufacturing expansion in November reflects an improvement in order demand, supply dynamics and business confidence.

Japan

Japanese recovered steel export prices dropped rapidly over the past year, particularly for higher grades. Domestic prices in early December 2024 were nearly at a two-year low, softened by weak domestic and export demand and tepid crude steel prices. Japan’s iron and steel and recovered steel exports continued to decrease over the last year because of reduced overseas demand and a sluggish seaborne steel market.

The tepid seaborne steel market largely drove slower export activity. Overseas buyers slowed their purchases of imported recovered steel in response to lower production rates and constrained profit margins.

The Davis Index for No. 2 heavy melting steel, or HMS (H2), for export fob to a Japanese port fell by 9,000 Japanese yen ($60) per metric ton, or more than 21 percent, on an annual basis. After peaking at 53,000 Japanese yen ($352) per metric ton Jan. 31, 2024, H2 pricing settled at 42,000 Japanese yen ($279) per metric ton fob to Tokyo Bay Dec. 4, 2024.

Key domestic buyer Tokyo Steel has lowered its recycled steel purchase prices at most plants several times in the last year and is paying roughly 40,000 to 41,500 Japanese yen ($259 to $269) per metric ton for H2 deliveries at its Tahara, Okayama, Kyushu and Utsunomiya steelworks.

Japan exported 5.23 million metric tons of recovered steel from January through October of last year, a decrease of 10 percent compared with the 5.82 million metric tons exported in the same period the previous year, according to the country’s latest customs data. The decline in Japan’s recovered steel exports is attributed to bearish overseas demand as buyers tread cautiously in the face of rising inventories and uncertainties in the steel sector outlook.

Although Vietnamese buyers were active in the seaborne market, South Korean buyers fulfilled long-term contracts only and stayed away from the spot market. Meanwhile, Taiwanese buyers were more focused on containerized recovered steel. However, Japanese recovered steel export volumes are expected to increase in the coming months as prices become more competitive in the seaborne market.

Taiwan

Taiwanese containerized recovered steel import prices trended mostly downward throughout the last year given subdued demand in the downstream markets that weighed down market sentiment and procurement appetites. Domestic ferrous prices in Taiwan extended losses in 2024 amid weak regional downstream demand and low-priced Chinese billet availability.

The daily Davis Index for U.S.-origin containerized HMS Nos. 1 and 2 (80:20) fell by 25 percent to $295 per metric ton cfr to Taiwan Dec. 9, 2024, compared with $383 per metric ton in the preceding year in light of low demand for rebar.

In the small bulk market, the weekly index for Japanese HMS Nos. 1 and 2 (50:50) also was down by nearly 25 percent, or $75 per metric ton, from a year ago to $305 per metric ton cfr Taiwan Dec. 6, 2024.

Vietnam

Vietnam’s imported recovered steel prices continued to fall since April 2024 following global cues and a lag in steel demand from limited end-user buying.

Vietnamese steel mills’ production rate did not show any increase, while the billet export business was further interrupted by an influx of cheaper material exported from Russia, Iran and Indonesia. Most Vietnamese mills kept minimal recovered steel inventories given their low utilization rates, allowing them to restock when imported recovered steel prices became more competitive than domestic recovered steel.

Vietnam imported 3.89 million metric tons of recovered steel from January through October 2024, according to the country’s customs department, an increase of 14 percent from the 3.43 million metric tons imported over the same period in 2023.

Meanwhile, the daily Davis Index for containerized HMS Nos. 1 and 2 (80:20) fell by more than 27 percent annually to $302 per metric ton cfr to Vietnam as of Dec. 6, 2024.

2025 outlook

The Asian recovered steel market is headed for a mixed outlook in 2025 amid expectations of positive stimulus measures from China to be toned down by muted demand and increased output.

Generally, with better transparency on China’s stimulus effects and clarity on trade discussions with the U.S. and European Union, a growth outlook is expected by the third quarter.

Considering the current market scenario, seaborne bookings for recovered steel in major East Asian markets are expected to remain limited in the near term amid weak demand from steelmakers, which face depressed domestic long steel prices and high inventories.

Further, Chinese steel prices could decline through much of the first half of 2025 as demand growth slows and surplus supply burdens the market.

Aditya Sinha is an Asia ferrous analyst at Davis Index and can be reached at aditya.sinha@davisindex.com.