Tariff impact still uncertain

President Donald Trump made the use of tariffs on imported products a central focus of his campaign in the run-up to the 2024 election, and the extent to which that promise will be carried out is unclear following his inauguration Jan. 20.

In January, some recycled plastics industry contacts were maintaining a wait-and-see approach to their dealings.

“I think we’re all kind of holding our breath at this point, waiting to see what happens,” says a Midwest-based recycler who primarily works with high-density polyethylene (HDPE). “Last year, [the mindset] was no one was doing major investments because they wanted to see what happens with the election, and now it’s no one is making investments because they want to see what’s going to happen with tariffs. It feels like déjà vu. I’m back in that October [2024] timeline, waiting to see what’s going to happen in February.”

“[N]o one is making investments because they want to see what’s going to happen with tariffs. It feels like déjà vu. I’m back in that October [2024] timeline, waiting to see what’s going to happen in February.” – a recycler based in the Midwest

Authors of the Middleton, Wisconsin-based National Association for PET Container Resources (NAPCOR) “2023 PET Recycling Report” tell Recycling Today Trump’s pro-tariff agenda will be something to monitor when it comes to the flow of recycled polyethylene terephthalate (rPET) into the U.S.

“Though there is a strong reclamation industry in the U.S., and the competition from rPET imports can pose a challenge to domestic reclaimers, these imports will be a reality as long as there is insufficient PET collection to keep up with demand for postconsumer recycled content,” they say, adding that Canada and Mexico are significant suppliers of rPET to the U.S.

A 25 percent tariff on shipments from those countries, which Trump indicated were coming in February, could open up the likelihood of significantly increased imports from Southeast Asia and South and Central America.

“We saw some things [in recent months] about people hedging [against potential price increases by importing more resin ahead of Trump’s inauguration], but a lot of it seems up in the air,” a Northeast-based broker says. “I think the tariffs would have an impact as far as what’s imported. Most of the postconsumer plastic stays domestic.”

While uncertainty engulfs the import market, the broker says some recycled resins are enjoying a positive start to the year domestically.

As of the second week of January, Grade-A PET bales were priced between 16 cents and 18 cents per pound in the East Coast and Midwest, while natural HDPE bales reached more than 80 cents per pound. Polypropylene hit 15 cents per pound in some areas.

Mixed-color HDPE bales, which struggled throughout 2024, recently dropped to between 5 cents and 6 cents per pound in some markets.

“Toward the end of the third quarter, things had started to taper off, but there were some decent options,” the broker says of mixed-color HDPE. “Then, it just completely fell off and hasn’t rebounded yet.”