Same conversation, new focus

It’s been nearly two years since Recycling Today published our original examination of paper recycling rates—2023’s “Shadow of doubt”—and even longer since those rates first were publicly called into question, specifically the effectiveness of old corrugated containers (OCC) recycling, but the conversation never really stopped. Instead, it has shifted to addressing the shortcomings of our recycling systems and ways to boost recovery.

But, this month, we’ve put the paper recycling rate back in the spotlight as the Washington-based American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA) has updated its recycling rate methodology for the first time in decades, revealing not-so-different numbers for overall paper recycling but a major change to the OCC recycling rate. (For more on the AF&PA’s updated recycling rate methodology, see “A new paper recycling reality.”)

In figures AF&PA released in mid-November 2024, it has calculated that 65-69 percent of paper available for recovery in 2023 was recycled, including 71-76 percent of OCC—a nearly 20-point swing from the 93.6 percent OCC recycling rate reported for 2022.

The numbers appear to be a bit more realistic; after all, it seemed too good to be true that nearly 94 percent of all cardboard in the U.S. was recycled in 2022.

Now, it’s important to keep the focus on recovery.

"Whether the recycling rate is 40 percent, 80 percent or somewhere in between, the fact is, there’s room for improvement.”

Since I first began reporting on this topic in late 2022, several reports have suggested the paper recycling rate is not as high as previously touted by the AF&PA, and one that sticks out is from the Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The late 2023 report (using data from 2019) reveals the amount of cardboard and other paper and paper-based packaging in U.S. landfills represents $4 billion in lost economic value.

The NREL report also concludes that the overall paper recycling rate in the U.S. in 2019 was 38 percent. While analysts say that figure might be slightly higher when examining data from the early 2020s, frankly, that number only validates the need for a deeper discussion on improving recovery.

Whether the recycling rate is 40 percent, 80 percent or somewhere in between, the fact is, there’s room for improvement; that was true when we published “Shadow of doubt” in early 2023 and remains true today.

The NREL report suggests billions of dollars of paper are lost to landfill. Debating numbers and insisting on the success of paper recycling instead of examining how to extract that value does a disservice to the industry. Let’s not lose sight of the task at hand—recovering paper.