PET bucks seasonal trends

According to some industry sources, recycled polyethylene terephthalate (rPET) hasn’t behaved as expected this year.

Typically, PET bottle supply will peak in the spring and summer as consumers increasingly purchase products such as bottled beverages, while demand for the material increases during those months and tapers off toward the end of the year.

But as of September, the usual trend hadn’t materialized. Emily Friedman, a Houston-based senior recycled plastics editor at London-based commodities consulting firm ICIS, says PET bale supply was tight through the summer, while demand likely will remain high through the end of the year.

“There’s tighter-than-usual supply and higher-than-usual demand, which sets this market up to be pretty strong and tight through the end of this year.” – Emily Friedman, senior recycled plastics editor, ICIS

“We didn’t see [the usual supply trend] in the market this year, so it was very unusual, though not surprising when you look at inflation and some of the consumer hesitancy to spend that extra dollar on a carbonated soft drink when they might be hurting in other places,” Friedman says, adding that some market participants have said feedstock volumes are low as of September and could fall further by the end of the year.

On the demand side, Friedman notes that while companies typically start destocking during the winter, the opposite could be happening as large brands with recycled content commitments increase their procurement efforts.

“There’s tighter-than-usual supply and higher-than-usual demand, which sets this market up to be pretty strong and tight through the end of this year,” she says.

A broker based in the Northeast also has noticed the shift away from the norm, noting bale prices on the East Coast had risen incrementally every month this year, peaking at a range of between 21 cents to 23 cents per pound in August before falling slightly to a range of 19 cents to 21 cents per pound in early September, depending on freight costs.

Overall, he says the market for bales has been relatively stable throughout the year.

“I think when it’s stable like this, people are comfortable in a good way,” he says. “I think people would rather have that stability throughout the year where you can get orders and move material because, at the end of the day, movement for these MRFs [material recovery facilities] is key. Space is at a premium. I think they’d rather get a good price where they’re profitable and can move the material consistently versus the roller coaster we’ve experienced in certain years.”

On the West Coast, PET bale prices haven’t grown as steadily, according to National Association for PET Container Resources (NAPCOR) Program Director Alasdair Carmichael, as import competition generally has capped bale pricing.

“In the last six months, NAPCOR has seen both West Coast curbside and deposit bale prices reach a plateau,” Carmichael says. “In both [East Coast and West Coast] regions, 2023 was more volatile; we saw a major price collapse in the late summer months.”