Nonferrous

The nonferrous market continues to show some mixed signals, with scrap copper showing good movement and higher prices. Meanwhile, the aluminum scrap market, while still in a fairly decent position, is seeing some issues that are creating a murkier situation.

One of the biggest concerns is the softening auto industry. Because automakers are struggling to sell their finished products, orders for some grades of aluminum scrap to feed these needs are slowing. One aluminum scrap processor says that markets for aluminum could come off a bit as the auto industry struggles.

Reflecting the difficulties with the domestic auto industry, General Motors reported a loss for its most recent quarter. Further, the company reported a decline of around 6 percent in shipments of new automobiles over the first two months of this year.

The company also has announced plans to cut production of automobiles and trucks by more than 250,000 vehicles over the first six months of this year.

A slightly better outlook comes from another handler of aluminum scrap who says that while the domestic auto industry is struggling right now, it may be close to or at bottom.

Another area of interest for aluminum scrap recyclers is the labor unrest at Wabash Alloys’ Wabash, Ind., plant. The contract for some union workers at the plant has expired, and there has been some discussion about a possible strike at the plant. The company claims that it is the world’s largest producer of recycled aluminum casting alloys.

Although a disruption in operations at the plant could create some short-term issues, another processor says that if the plant is closed for an extended period, additional capacity could come online from other sources.

At the same time, the availability of aluminum scrap is somewhat muted. Despite some slowing in aluminum scrap demand, there is tightness in nonferrous scrap markets, which is making it more of a challenge for processors looking to obtain more tonnage.

Copper markets, overall, continue to show strength. Demand remains sturdy as China continues to play a very active role in the market. "China is very strong on all the red metals," a Midwestern scrap dealer says. China’s expected demand contributes to a forecast for continued strong markets through most of this year.

Offshore, China continues to be the dominant player in the market for many of these grades. Buying is expected to remain steady to strong from China, which should work to keep material flowing at a steady pace.

Despite some price slippage for a number of nonferrous grades, most scrap dealers say they are moving all the tonnage they are processing. While a few people concede that they are holding some material in anticipation of higher prices, for the most part, they are looking to ship material at present prices.

This trend is not just affecting nonferrous scrap processors in the United States. In a recent report from the Bureau of International Recycling, a trade association based in Brussels, prices remain high for most grades of nonferrous scrap, while inventory levels remain low.

However, forecasters also see some moderating of prices for many of these nonferrous grades as some economists speculate that the global economy may start to slow down a bit.

The big caveat, one that has been mentioned repeatedly over the past several quarters, is the growing impact that China is having on the nonferrous market. While there are no indications of any significant pullback in demand, as many processors have succinctly put it, "As China goes, so goes the market."

For copper, this is translating into stronger demand. According to market reports in mid-March, investors were speculating that China would be buying large blocks of copper to replenish stockpiles following a global shortfall of supply.

Further, according to a Bloomberg report, China’s State Reserve Bureau may buy more large blocks of copper in April to build up inventory levels.