Nonferrous

CLIPPED WINGS

After reaching lofty heights in late September and early October, a few cents were clipped off copper pricing after some selling off in mid-October.

Both LME (London Metal Exchange) and Comex copper pricing dropped more than 10 percent in value when speculators and fund managers in both markets reacted to a 21 percent copper consumption drop in China for July.

The drop came after a 15-month run-up had brought Comex copper pricing to as much as $1.46 per pound. A trader quoted by the Bloomberg news agency said speculators had been waiting for sign of "a hiccup" from China.

An economist from Bloomberg offered his opinion that speculators caused the price plunge, as the July figure may have caused them to rush to change their formerly bullish positions. Copper prices on the Shanghai Exchange were also reportedly falling.

It remains to be seen whether the one-day drop signals a medium- or long-term trend, as many market fundamentals still point to copper demand outpacing new supply.

While shippers of scrap to China are nervous about the stricter import rules taking effect, they also say that orders for scrap metal in China remain in place.

But speculators looking further ahead are reportedly concerned that tighter credit limits in China will scale back that nation’s construction boom—and ultimately its demand for metals. If they are right, then early October may be remembered as the peak of this particular copper bull run.

(Additional news about nonferrous scrap, including breaking news and consuming industry reports, is available online at www.RecyclingToday.com.)

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November 2004
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