When last April we took an in-depth look at copper, the markets were in what charitably could be called “a state of flux.” The economic news coming out of Asia was disheartening to say the least. Asia, which consumes approximately 50% of the world’s copper, was canceling orders and dumping products onto international markets with abandon. This, coupled with increases in primary copper production in Peru, Chile and Argentina, produced a glut in the market and depressed prices.
The depressed copper markets caused many scrap dealers to hold on to their supply of copper and wait for a better day. The feeling then was that the only place Asia had to go was up, China would begin to buy copper like crazy, and primary copper producers would come to their senses and cut back production.
But things don’t always go according to plan. Today, Asia doesn’t look as if its economic and political woes will evaporate any time too soon. Adding to the chaos is a Japanese economy limping through a recession. Japan is now a member in good standing of Asia’s economically-challenged. China is still failing to oblige the world by buying up all the copper it can get its hands on, and primary producers don’t seem in a hurry to cut back production. Turning a copper mine's spigot off is not something highly- compensated executives want to do, or for that matter explain or even suggest to stockholders why it is necessary.
All is not doom and gloom, however. As you will read in Recycling Today’s Copper/Brass Supplement, strong demand for copper in the United States and Europe is providing a measure of immunity against the Asian flu. Several experts told us that they expect prices to remain in the 70-80 cent range. This contrasts with prices in the 60-65 cent range a short time ago. Although prices are not at historically high levels, they appear to be heading in a more or less northerly direction rather than due south.
In the Copper/Brass Supplement we discuss these and other trends affecting the marketplace. Specifically, we review production of wire mill, brass mill, foundry and powder products. Further, we track consumption of copper in end-use markets.
Last and certainly not least, we analyze how international and national forces are impinging on copper scrap dealers and processors. The ride ahead may not be smooth, but as with any good roller coaster, it will have its moments.
The author is editor of Recycling Today.
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