BIR Report

SPEAKERS PREDICT STAINLESS SCRAP SHORTAGE

During the spring BIR World Recycling Conference, Markus Moll, a guest speaker at the Stainless Steel & Special Alloys Committee session, predicted that worldwide shares of scrap in stainless steel production will decline from 34.8 percent in 2004 to nearer 32 percent by 2010. Moll is managing director of Steel & Metals Market Research, an Austrian company.

Moll also noted that the 300 series had seen its share of the world stainless steel market fall below 65 percent last year, while sky-high nickel prices could prompt its share to fall as low as 55 percent by 2015. He urged the scrap industry to approach its producer customers and assure them that scrap remains the "value source" for nickel in the long term.

In his review of conditions in Europe, Sandro Giuliani of Italy-based Giuliani Metalli/Cronimet Group, suggested that the stainless scrap market had switched "from surplus to shortage" earlier this year. Key factors included competition among dealers, an increase in nickel prices and exports to the Far East.

Quoting International Stainless Steel Forum figures, Giuliani said Europe’s stainless steel production was expected to increase by 7.4 percent to 9.5 million metric tons in 2006.

Barry Hunter of U.S.-based Hunter BenMet said stainless steel scrap was entering "uncharted waters" for wholesale buying prices. "General knowledge of all available wholesale buying prices has allowed those willing to sell material into this highly competitive wholesale market to basically dictate pricing for individual loads."

Strong domestic demand and limited scrap availability had affected U.S. exports, with shipments dropping 15 percent between the final quarter of 2005 and the first quarter of 2006.

The BIR Fall Conference is taking place Oct. 29-31 in Brussels.