NAFTA bashing has limited support

A poll commissioned by Toronto- and Chicago-based Livingston International Inc. indicates that many people in the United States see the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as a contributing factor to the growth of the U.S. economy and the proliferation of high-skilled jobs during the past 20 years, and that they believe the focus of NAFTA negotiations should be modernizing the agreement, not withdrawing from it.

The poll was conducted online by the Harris Poll organization among more than 2,000 U.S. adults ages 18 and over. Results from the survey indicate Americans seem to have put the trade deal in context with broader changes that have taken place in the economy, and do not seem to single it out as a principal cause of economic adversity.

Despite sometimes heated rhetoric around the subject coming from President Trump and others, only six percent of Americans believe the U.S. should withdraw from the agreement altogether. Almost half of Americans (45 percent) believe the trade deal has greatly influenced growth in the U.S. economy during the past 20 years and more than half (57 percent) believe a withdrawal from NAFTA is likely to result in a price increase on everyday goods.

“These recent data suggest Americans hold a measured view of NAFTA and would like to see the government take a balanced and sensible approach in the NAFTA negotiations,” says Daniel McHugh, CEO of Livingston International, a trade and freight consulting firm. “Americans recognize and understand that NAFTA has resulted in a variety of effects on the U.S. economy, most of which have been positive, and withdrawing from the agreement will likely lead to unwanted and unnecessary economic disruption.”

Among the survey’s chief findings:

Forty-five percent of Americans view NAFTA as contributing to economic growth in the U.S. during the past 20 years.

Forty-three percent believe NAFTA has contributed to the growth of America's knowledge economy (e.g., professional services, engineering, IT, etc.).

Close to 1 in 5 Americans (17 percent) believes the U.S. should neither renegotiate nor withdraw from NAFTA because it is already an effective agreement or because doing so will harm key industries.

About 1 in 5 Americans (19 percent) believes the U.S. made the right decision to renegotiate NAFTA because the agreement needs to be modernized.

Slightly more than 1 in 10 Americans (13 percent) believes the U.S. made the right decision to renegotiate NAFTA because the trade deal is unfair to America, but only 6 percent believe the U.S. should withdraw from the agreement.

Less than half of Americans (42 percent) see NAFTA as primarily responsible for the loss of American manufacturing jobs to workers in other countries, while 62 percent see it as just one of many factors contributing to the loss of those jobs. Some 56 percent of Americans and half of unemployed Americans (50 percent)—defined as those who are not currently employed full-time, part-time or self-employed—agree that technological advancements, such as robotics and automation, have played a greater role than NAFTA in the loss of American manufacturing jobs.

Even in the Midwest and Northeast, the areas most affected by manufacturing job loss, 65 percent and 58 percent respectively believe NAFTA is just one of many factors contributing to the loss of those jobs, and just more than half of Americans in both regions feel productivity-enhancing technologies have played a bigger role than NAFTA with respect to those job losses (56 percent in the Midwest and 55 percent in the Northeast).

The survey also suggests Americans understand the nature of the country's economy has changed substantially. Some 43 percent of Americans believe the trade deal has played an influential role in the growth of America's knowledge economy, while fewer than two in five Americans (38 percent) believe a U.S. withdrawal from NAFTA would bring back most of the manufacturing jobs lost since NAFTA was signed.

“In many ways, these sentiments echo much of the feedback industry groups have already provided to the Office of the United States Trade Representative, namely that there is an opportunity to update or modernize NAFTA, but that there should not be a complete withdrawal or any extensive modification of the agreement that could dramatically disrupt business operations,” says McHugh. “With 14 million U.S. jobs dependent on trade with Mexico and Canada, alterations to NAFTA, such as changing the rules of origin for manufactured goods, could adversely affect employment and lead to the price of everyday goods going up.”

Fewer than one-third of Americans (32 percent) believe the U.S. has made the right decision to renegotiate NAFTA. Among that population, 3 in 5 (60 percent) believe it’s because the agreement needs to be modernized, while the remainder (40 percent) believe the trade deal is unfair to the U.S. At the same time, nearly 1 in 5 (17 percent) believes renegotiating or withdrawing from the deal is the wrong approach, either because it is already an effective agreement or because doing so could harm key industries.

This survey was conducted online within the United States by Harris Poll on behalf of Livingston International in late June 2017, polling more than 2,200 U.S. adults aged 18 and older.